India-US Trade Talks Collapse: Tariffs, Russia Ties & Export Risks Explained

Introduction: US Slaps 25% Tariff on India, Trade Talks Now in Limbo

India’s much-anticipated trade deal with the United States has officially stalled after US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian exports starting August 1, 2025. The announcement also came with an unspecified “penalty” linked to India’s trade ties with Russia, escalating tensions between the two strategic partners.

Despite multiple rounds of negotiation, both nations remain divided on several issues, from India’s protection of agriculture and dairy to US demands on GM foods, medical devices, digital trade, and data flows. As the tariff takes effect, major Indian sectors are bracing for impact.

Let’s break down what went wrong, who gets hit, and what comes next.

Why the Trade Deal Fell Apart: Core Disagreements

1. Agriculture and Dairy: India’s No-Go Zones

At the heart of the disagreement lies India’s refusal to cut tariffs on dairy, rice, wheat, and GM crops. These are not just economic sectors; they’re livelihood engines for over 700 million rural citizens, including nearly 80 million small dairy farmers.

“Agricultural and dairy product protections remain primary concerns. These sectors are politically and economically sensitive for India,” said Sankhanath Bandyopadhyay, economist at Infomerics Valuation and Ratings.

The US, on the other hand, continues to push for access to India’s agricultural market, especially for corn, soybeans, GM foods, ethanol, apples, almonds, and processed dairy.

Key Takeaway:
India’s protectionist stance reflects its rural welfare priorities, but it’s also blocking progress in high-stakes trade talks.

2. Wider US Demands: From GM Foods to Digital Trade

The US Trade Representative (USTR) has been pressing India to:

• Lower tariffs on medical devices, alcoholic beverages, ethanol, and auto parts
  
  

• Relax non-tariff barriers (e.g., complex customs rules)
  
  

• Open up its data localization and digital trade laws
  
  

• Allow more US pharma and tech firms to operate without restrictions
  
  

But Indian officials argue that these demands could hurt local industries and compromise data sovereignty and regulatory autonomy.

"India has allowed more energy and defense imports from the US, but sees limited reciprocity,” noted a senior Commerce Ministry official.

Key Takeaway:
India wants a balanced deal, not one that opens doors too widely without getting real market access in return.

The 25% Tariff: What It Covers & Why It Matters

President Trump, in a White House press conference, described India as “one of the highest tariff-imposing countries in the world.” He confirmed that a flat 25% tariff will now apply to a wide range of Indian exports.

According to trade data from 2024, India exported $87 billion worth of goods to the US, including:

• Gems & Jewellery: $10.2 billion
  
  

• Pharmaceuticals: $8.3 billion
  
  

• Textiles & Garments: $6.5 billion
  
  

• Auto components: $3.7 billion
  
  

• Electronics: $5.9 billion
  
  

• Chemicals, seafood, and IT hardware
  
  

Table: Top Indian Exports to the US & Potential Tariff Impact

The Russia Factor: The Unspoken Penalty

Apart from the tariff, Trump’s move includes an unspecified penalty for India’s continued trade with Russia, particularly:

• Importing Russian oil (which accounts for over 35% of India’s crude supply)
  
  

• Purchasing military equipment and nuclear tech
  
  

• Non-compliance with US secondary sanctions

While no formal sanction list has been published yet, experts suggest the penalty may involve:

• Restrictions on US-origin components
  
  

• Secondary sanctions on Indian banks financing Russian trade
  
  

• Delays in defense co-production deals
  
  

Key Takeaway:
India’s balancing act between Russia and the US is now under sharper scrutiny with trade consequences.

Impact on Indian Economy: Short-Term Shocks, Long-Term Risks

1. Exporters Brace for a Hit

Industry bodies like FIEO and CII have expressed concern over:

• Shrinking order volumes from US buyers
  
  

• Higher costs due to re-routing and compliance
  
  

• Potential job losses in labour-intensive sectors
  
  

“We expect immediate fallout in textiles, pharma, and gems & jewellery,” said Utsav Verma, Head of Research at Choice Institutional Equities.

2. Stock Market Reaction

India’s stock market has already felt the pressure. Since early July:

• Export-heavy stocks (like Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Titan, Infosys) have declined
  
  

• FII outflows have crossed ₹15,000 crore
  
  

• The rupee has weakened, nearing the 85/USD mark

3. GDP Outlook at Risk

Economists warn that the tariff shock could shave 0.3% to 0.5% off India’s FY26 GDP, particularly if export volumes fall and investor confidence dips.

Comparative Disadvantage: India vs Other Asian Exporters

Here’s the bigger problem: the US is not imposing a 25% tariff on Vietnam, Indonesia, or Thailand. Instead, those countries face duties in the 15–20% range, making Indian exports comparatively more expensive.

This puts India at risk of:

• Losing market share in critical US sectors
  
  

• Seeing manufacturers shift sourcing to Southeast Asia
  
  

• Eroding its “China+1” positioning
  
  

Key Takeaway:
Without a resolution, India could lose its edge in global supply chains, especially in electronics and textiles.

India’s Position: Holding the Line For Now

The Indian government has responded cautiously:

• Commerce Ministry officials say they are “studying the implications” of the tariff
  
  

• A US delegation is expected in August to restart talks
  
  

• No immediate retaliatory tariffs have been announced yet
  
  

But Indian negotiators remain firm on:

• Protecting rural livelihoods
  
  

• Avoiding “one-sided” trade benefits
  
  

• Maintaining policy independence, especially on data and digital sovereignty
  
  

Expert View: What Needs to Happen Next?

Dr. Radhika Sinha, trade policy advisor:

“This is not a breakdown, it’s a tactical pause. India and the US need to find middle ground through phased agreements, not all-or-nothing pacts.”

Rajat Gupta, policy researcher at ORF:

“The US is playing hardball, but if India bends too far, it could set a precedent that weakens its negotiating position globally.”

Read also: US vs BRICS? Trump Warns 10% Tariff Amid De-Dollarization Tensions

Takeaways for Exporters & Investors

For Exporters:

• Review US exposure across product lines and consider alternate markets
  
  

• Build buffers for pricing shocks and currency risk
  
  

• Track updates from FIEO and Commerce Ministry for new support policies
  
  

For Investors:

• Monitor export-heavy sectors for Q2 earnings warnings
  
  

• Look for hedging opportunities in USD-INR or related commodities
  
  

• Expect continued volatility in FIIs and currency until talks resume
  
  

What’s Next: Can the Trade Deal Be Saved?

While the tariff has taken effect, Trump has signaled that talks will continue, and a US delegation will visit India in August. This offers a small window to:

• Restart negotiations
  
  

• Work on a phased mini-deal
  
  

• Avoid long-term damage to bilateral ties
  
  

But for now, the India–US trade relationship faces one of its most serious setbacks in years, and the next few weeks will decide whether this pause turns into a permanent freeze,  or a reset.

Read Also: US vs BRICS? Trump Warns 10% Tariff Amid De-Dollarization Tensions