India-US Trade Talks Collapse: Tariffs, Russia Ties & Export Risks Explained

By Shan | Jul 31, 2025

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Introduction: US Slaps 25% Tariff on India, Trade Talks Now in Limbo

Indias much-anticipated trade deal with the United States has officially stalled after US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian exports starting August 1, 2025. The announcement also came with an unspecified penalty linked to Indias trade ties with Russia, escalating tensions between the two strategic partners.

Despite multiple rounds of negotiation, both nations remain divided on several issues, from Indias protection of agriculture and dairy to US demands on GM foods, medical devices, digital trade, and data flows. As the tariff takes effect, major Indian sectors are bracing for impact.

Lets break down what went wrong, who gets hit, and what comes next.



Why the Trade Deal Fell Apart: Core Disagreements

1. Agriculture and Dairy: Indias No-Go Zones

At the heart of the disagreement lies Indias refusal to cut tariffs on dairy, rice, wheat, and GM crops. These are not just economic sectors; theyre livelihood engines for over 700 million rural citizens, including nearly 80 million small dairy farmers.

Agricultural and dairy product protections remain primary concerns. These sectors are politically and economically sensitive for India, said Sankhanath Bandyopadhyay, economist at Infomerics Valuation and Ratings.

The US, on the other hand, continues to push for access to Indias agricultural market, especially for corn, soybeans, GM foods, ethanol, apples, almonds, and processed dairy.

Key Takeaway:
Indias protectionist stance reflects its rural welfare priorities, but its also blocking progress in high-stakes trade talks.

2. Wider US Demands: From GM Foods to Digital Trade

The US Trade Representative (USTR) has been pressing India to:

But Indian officials argue that these demands could hurt local industries and compromise data sovereignty and regulatory autonomy.

"India has allowed more energy and defense imports from the US, but sees limited reciprocity, noted a senior Commerce Ministry official.

Key Takeaway:
India wants a balanced deal, not one that opens doors too widely without getting real market access in return.

The 25% Tariff: What It Covers & Why It Matters

President Trump, in a White House press conference, described India as one of the highest tariff-imposing countries in the world. He confirmed that a flat 25% tariff will now apply to a wide range of Indian exports.

According to trade data from 2024, India exported $87 billion worth of goods to the US, including:


Table: Top Indian Exports to the US & Potential Tariff Impact

Sector

2024 Export Value (USD)

Tariff Risk (25%)

Key Concerns

Gems & Jewellery

$10.2B

High

Job losses, export slowdown

Pharmaceuticals

$8.3B

High

Generic drug supply disruption

Textiles & Apparel

$6.5B

High

Cost spike, loss of competitiveness

Electronics

$5.9B

High

iPhone supply chain risk

Auto Components

$3.7B

Medium-High

OEM migration to Vietnam/Mexico


The Russia Factor: The Unspoken Penalty

Apart from the tariff, Trumps move includes an unspecified penalty for Indias continued trade with Russia, particularly:

While no formal sanction list has been published yet, experts suggest the penalty may involve:

Key Takeaway:
Indias balancing act between Russia and the US is now under sharper scrutiny with trade consequences.


Impact on Indian Economy: Short-Term Shocks, Long-Term Risks

1. Exporters Brace for a Hit

Industry bodies like FIEO and CII have expressed concern over:

We expect immediate fallout in textiles, pharma, and gems & jewellery, said Utsav Verma, Head of Research at Choice Institutional Equities.

2. Stock Market Reaction

Indias stock market has already felt the pressure. Since early July:

3. GDP Outlook at Risk

Economists warn that the tariff shock could shave 0.3% to 0.5% off Indias FY26 GDP, particularly if export volumes fall and investor confidence dips.


Comparative Disadvantage: India vs Other Asian Exporters

Heres the bigger problem: the US is not imposing a 25% tariff on Vietnam, Indonesia, or Thailand. Instead, those countries face duties in the 1520% range, making Indian exports comparatively more expensive.

This puts India at risk of:

Key Takeaway:
Without a resolution, India could lose its edge in global supply chains, especially in electronics and textiles.


Indias Position: Holding the Line For Now

The Indian government has responded cautiously:

But Indian negotiators remain firm on:

Expert View: What Needs to Happen Next?

Dr. Radhika Sinha, trade policy advisor:

This is not a breakdown, its a tactical pause. India and the US need to find middle ground through phased agreements, not all-or-nothing pacts.

Rajat Gupta, policy researcher at ORF:

The US is playing hardball, but if India bends too far, it could set a precedent that weakens its negotiating position globally.

Read also: US vs BRICS? Trump Warns 10% Tariff Amid De-Dollarization Tensions

Takeaways for Exporters & Investors

For Exporters:

For Investors:

Whats Next: Can the Trade Deal Be Saved?

While the tariff has taken effect, Trump has signaled that talks will continue, and a US delegation will visit India in August. This offers a small window to:

But for now, the IndiaUS trade relationship faces one of its most serious setbacks in years, and the next few weeks will decide whether this pause turns into a permanent freeze,  or a reset.

Read Also: US vs BRICS? Trump Warns 10% Tariff Amid De-Dollarization Tensions





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